Market Update

If you enjoyed these insights, make sure to [book an intro strategy call](https://collectiveshift.io/strategy/) with our research partners over at [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/).

Price targets are critical to any crypto sell strategy, but knowing where to set them is often challenging. Below, I dive into why setting realistic targets is essential and explore the potential projections for BTC, ETH and SOL in the current bull market.

**Key Takeaways**

- Setting sound sell targets can help avoid unrealistic goals, such as a target requiring cryptocurrency to attain a Bitcoin-like market cap.
- Based on dominance levels and past market cycles, BTC’s benchmark ranges from 130,000 to $180,000.
- Based on similar analysis, ETH and SOL price projections range from $7,000 to $10,000 and $400 to $700, respectively.
- All numbers mentioned are simple projections to help see if your price targets are realistic.
- Other factors help determine whether the cryptocurrency can hit the targets (e.g., unlocks, inflation). Whether you should sell depends entirely on your personal crypto goals or whether you choose a time-based approach.

**Why Realistic Projections Are Important**

Setting realistic goals is core to any sound sell strategy. Instead of succumbing to fear of missing out (FOMO) and getting caught up in the bull market mania, it helps to have figures in place and an action plan ready.

A critical part of this is mapping out different scenarios for how high those cryptocurrencies could go.

**Practical example**

Having a goal that is too unrealistic can be damaging and result in holding it all the way up and down (i.e., round-tripping), which means missing out on capitalising on the bull market.

Let’s use [Sui (SUI)](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/sui/) as an example, which currently has a market cap of $5.8B and an FDV of $21B.

We have two holders: James and Jim.

James heard social media influencers talk about SUI as the “next 100x opportunity,” which he uses as his target. For this to play out, SUI would need a market cap of $580B, making it more than 7x bigger than SOL’s current market cap and nearly double ETH’s.

If James is hellbent on holding until this market cap is hit, he might be waiting awhile!

On the other hand, Jim is targeting a 10x, meaning SUI would have a market cap of $50B. Although this lofty goal is much more achievable than James’s $500B figure.

**How High Will The Majors Get?**

In this analysis, I will cover the three top cryptocurrencies by market cap: [BTC](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/btc/), [ETH](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/eth/) and [SOL](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/sol/).

These are not intended to be financial projections, advice or valuations.

Instead, they are designed to help you keep your mind ticking so you can see whether your price predictions are realistic. They provide a baseline based on previous market cycles and projections of total market cap.

I’ll use simple projections to represent price and market cap targets and possibilities.

Before we dive into more analysis, let’s anticipate how high the total crypto market could go this cycle, which will help inform us of different price scenarios.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 2.56.25 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_2_56_25_PM_9c732de260.png)

**How high will it go this cycle?**

Based on the ‘bottom’ market cap hitting $800B during the FTX bottom, if we account for a total 500% growth, we hit a total market of roughly $5T. I will use this figure throughout the piece as my Moderate/Base (most likely) case.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 2.57.01 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_2_57_01_PM_fdb10c9311.png)

**Bitcoin (BTC)**

There are a few ways to project BTC’s top for this cycle, which I’ve summarised below. To explore these simple projections, see below.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 2.58.38 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_2_58_38_PM_0f3d6a21ec.png)

**Ethereum (ETH)**

With fewer cycles under its belt, there is less historical data to compare prices to. However, we can use two similar price projections:

**Ethereum (ETH) Price Estimates at Different Dominance Levels**

For ETH to achieve the much-hyped ‘$10,000’ mark, a lot must go right. In the moderate case, ETH’s dominance would need to hit 25%, and in the optimistic case, it would achieve a 15–20% market share.

It shows how big the market cap would grow to hit these $10,000+ price projections.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 2.59.30 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_2_59_30_PM_18152c52e0.png)

**ETH Price Projections Based on Past Market Cycles**

If ETH increases by ~300%, following the same trajectory as previous cycles, it could reach $7,000. This could provide a realistic base case for ETH this cycle.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 3.00.01 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_3_00_01_PM_6515a53814.png)

**Solana (SOL)**

SOL has even less historical data and cycles to compare, but we can extrapolate Solana’s second-cycle price projection based on ETH’s second-cycle growth.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 3.01.15 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_3_01_15_PM_5c4c94c924.png)

**Takeaway**

The analysis shows that for SOL to hit levels between $800 and $1000, it’d require SOL to attain almost 10% dominance in the market and the total crypto market to hit the upper bound of $5–7T. It would also require SOL to hit a total market cap of over $400B, which is exceptionally high and could be challenging to maintain.

Therefore, a projection of $400-600 would be more realistic.

The inflation rate (i.e., the percentage of new coins/tokens issued divided by the current circulating supply) is worth considering when applying projections to SOL. According to Solana Compass, it is currently 4.96%. This compares to BTC and ETH, which have annual inflation rates of under 1.0%.

In general, the longer the bull market goes, the ‘harder’ it will be for SOL’s price to move, not to mention the large amounts of unlocks that BTC or ETH did not have to contend with.

Finally, the upper bound of SOL’s price could be limited to reaching Ethereum’s current market size. If SOL had the same market size as ETH today, it would mean a price of $652 per SOL.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 3.01.54 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_3_01_54_PM_1b47832011.png)

**Why Price Targets Are Not Everything**

I’ve reviewed various ways to consider how high prices can go through this cycle for the major cryptocurrencies. These are not sell targets but are designed to get you thinking about whether or not your existing sell targets are achievable.

Other factors such as token unlocks, demand drivers and adoption significantly impact whether a cryptocurrency can reach your target price.

Importantly, timing can be the most critical factor outside price, which we will cover in subsequent articles. For many, their exit is directly tied to historical timeframes.

The below graphic from Checkmate’s Checkonchain says we have another 100 to 300 days before a typical cycle peak.

![Screenshot 2024-12-11 at 3.02.50 PM.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024_12_11_at_3_02_50_PM_3ed77f1cb6.png)

If you enjoyed these insights, make sure to [book an intro strategy call](https://collectiveshift.io/strategy/) with our research partners over at [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/).


DISCLAIMER: The information on this blog post is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product. Block Earner does not recommend or endorse any particular token.



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Price targets are critical to any crypto sell strategy, but knowing where to set them is often challenging. Below, I dive into why setting realistic targets is essential and explore the potential projections for BTC, ETH and SOL in the current bull market.

Setting Realistic Projections: How High Can The Majors Go?

What is?

If you're dabbling in crypto, whether you're a seasoned trader or just getting started, understanding your tax obligations is crucial. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has made it clear that cryptocurrency is an asset subject to tax, just like stocks or property.

The ATO views crypto assets as property for tax purposes, not as currency. This means that every time you sell, trade, or use cryptocurrency, it could trigger a taxable event. It's important to stay on top of these obligations to avoid any surprises come tax time.

# **Crypto Tax Basics**

When it comes to crypto, you'll typically encounter two types of taxes: Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Income Tax. 

Let's break these down:

**Capital Gains Tax (CGT):** CGT applies when you dispose of your crypto assets. Some common activities that can trigger CGT include:

- Selling crypto for fiat currency
- Swapping one crypto for another
- Using crypto to purchase goods or services
- Depositing crypto into a smart contract

For example, if you bought 1 Bitcoin for $10,000 and later sold it for $15,000, you've made a capital gain of $5,000. This $5,000 would be added to your annual assessable income and taxed at your marginal tax rate.

The good news? If you hold your crypto for over 12 months, you may be eligible for a 50% CGT discount. Using our previous example, if you held that Bitcoin for over a year before selling, only $2,500 of the gain would be added to your assessable income.

**Income Tax:** Income tax applies to crypto you receive as income. This could include:

- Mining rewards
- Staking rewards
- Airdrops
- Interest from crypto lending platforms

For instance, if you earned $1,000 worth of cryptocurrency through staking rewards, this $1,000 would be treated as ordinary income and taxed at your marginal tax rate.

# **DeFi Taxation: Latest ATO Guidance**

The world of Decentralised Finance (DeFi) has exploded in popularity, offering innovative ways to earn yield on your crypto assets. However, it's crucial to understand the tax implications of these activities, especially in light of the ATO's latest guidance.

In November 2023, the ATO released [new web guidance](https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/investments-and-assets/crypto-asset-investments/decentralised-finance-and-wrapping-crypto) specifically addressing DeFi transactions. This guidance clarifies some areas but also highlights the complexity of DeFi taxation. Let's break down some key points:

**Lending and Borrowing in DeFi**

The ATO now considers that lending crypto assets often results in CGT events due to changes in beneficial ownership.
 
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**Liquidity Pools**

Both depositing into and withdrawing from liquidity pools trigger CGT events. For example:

![News 45.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/News_45_11b060fd4b.png)

**DeFi Interest and Rewards**

Rewards from DeFi platforms are treated as assessable income, not capital gains. For instance:

![News 47.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/News_47_c3e0e77aa1.png)

**Wrapped Tokens**

Both wrapping and unwrapping tokens are considered CGT events. For example:

![News 48.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/News_48_4ae95e22f3.png)

# **Key Takeaways:**

- Many DeFi activities trigger CGT events, even when you might not expect them.
- DeFi rewards are generally treated as income, not capital gains.
- It's crucial to keep detailed records of all DeFi transactions, including dates and values.
- The tax implications of DeFi can be complex, and seeking professional advice may be necessary.

Remember, while DeFi offers exciting opportunities, it's important to understand and prepare for the tax implications. Tools like Crypto Tax Calculator can help you track these complex transactions and ensure you're meeting your tax obligations.

# **Tips to Make Tax Time Easier**

**1. Keep Good Records:** Maintain detailed records of all your crypto transactions, including dates, amounts, and the AUD value at the time of each transaction.

**2. Use Crypto Tax Software:** Tools like Crypto Tax Calculator can automatically track your transactions and calculate your tax obligations, saving you hours of manual work.

**3. Regularly Sync Your Accounts and Reconcile:** Don't wait until the end of the financial year. Regularly update your records to avoid a last-minute scramble.

**4. Speak to a Crypto Specialist Accountant if Needed:** If your situation is complex, it might be worth consulting with an accountant specialising in cryptocurrency taxation.

# **Simplifying Crypto Tax Reporting Crypto Tax Calculator**

We're excited to announce that Block Earner has partnered with Crypto Tax Calculator to make your crypto tax reporting easier than ever!

**Benefits for Block Earner Users:**

- **Seamless integration:** Your Block Earner transaction CSVs can be dragged and dropped straight into CTC to import your transactions. 
- **Accurate calculations:** Ensure all your Block Earner activities will be automatically categorised for tax purposes.
- **Time-saving:** No more manual data entry or complex spreadsheets.

**How to Get Started:**

1. Sign up for a Crypto Tax Calculator account *(Block Earner users get a special discount! Use **BLOCK30 for 30% off** your first year*)*

2. Connect your Block Earner account

3. Import your other crypto transactions

4. Review your transactions for accuracy and tax saving opportunities

5. Generate your tax report that can be filed directly with the ATO or shared with your accountant

By staying on top of your crypto tax obligations and leveraging tools like Crypto Tax Calculator, you can focus on what really matters - growing your crypto portfolio With the right tools and knowledge, crypto tax doesn’t need to be a nightmare.

*First time users only












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The ATO views crypto assets as property for tax purposes, not as currency. This means that every time you sell, trade, or use cryptocurrency, it could trigger a taxable event. It's important to stay on top of these obligations to avoid any surprises come tax time.

Crypto Tax in Australia: What You Need to Know

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The dynamic landscape of high-performance layer-one blockchains (L1s) is seeing the rise of new contenders. These platforms are pushing the boundaries of blockchain speed, scalability, and developer accessibility. 

Sui vs Solana: A Deep Dive into Next-Gen Layer 1s

As cryptocurrency becomes increasingly integrated into mainstream finance, investors are exploring innovative ways to unlock value from their digital assets. One option gaining popularity is Crypto-backed Loans.

But what are Crypto-backed Loans, and are they the right credit solution for your financial profile? 

Here, we’ll explore how Crypto-backed Loans in Australia work, what they can be used for and where you can apply for a competitive cryptocurrency loan in Australia.


# **How cryptocurrency has made its way into everyday finance**

Cryptocurrencies have come a long way from their inception as niche digital assets. Today, they are widely recognised and accepted, from crypto ATMs to merchants accepting tokens as a payment method. 

And as the crypto market matures, financial services tailored to digital assets have emerged, including Crypto-backed Loans. These loans allow investors to leverage their cryptocurrency holdings without selling them, providing liquidity while retaining ownership of their assets.


# **How cryptocurrency has made its way into everyday finance**

Cryptocurrencies have come a long way from their inception as niche digital assets. Today, they are widely recognised and accepted, from crypto ATMs to merchants accepting tokens as a payment method. 

And as the crypto market matures, financial services tailored to digital assets have emerged, including Crypto-backed Loans. These loans allow investors to leverage their cryptocurrency holdings without selling them, providing liquidity while retaining ownership of their assets.


# **The ins and outs of Crypto-backed Loans in Australia — what are they and how they work**

[Crypto-backed Loans](https://blockearner.com.au/crypto-backed-loans/) are secured loans where digital assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum are used as security. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how they work:

- **Security submission** — The borrower applies for a loan, pledging a certain amount of cryptocurrency as security to the lender. The lending platform holds this security in a secure wallet, segregated away from the exchange.

- **Loan approval and settlement** — Based on the value of the security, the lender approves the loan amount. The loan is then settled in Australian dollars (AUD). 

- **Loan Repayments**

**Fixed Term** — The borrower begins making regular loan repayments on the loan where the interest rate depends on the platform’s lending requirements.

**Line of Credit** — The facility is open and may be managed by the borrower on their terms, until 12 months is up and the loan must be repaid or rolled over pending approval.

- **Repayments cease, and security is returned** — Upon repaying the loan in full, the security is returned to the borrower. Should the borrower default, the lender can liquidate the security to recover the loan amount.

**What can you use a Crypto-backed Loan for? **

Crypto-backed Loans in Australia offer great flexibility and can be used for various purposes, similar to traditional personal loans. Here are some common uses of cryptocurrency loans in Australia:

- **Vehicle Upgrade** — Block Earner loans are a fast, flexible way to fund your car, truck, or motorbike upgrade without selling your digital assets.

- **Travel** — Crypto-backed Loans allow you to fund your dream vacation without selling your crypto assets.

- **Wedding** — Finance your wedding expenses and host your big day exactly how you want it, all while holding onto your crypto for future gains. 

- **Home renovations** — Use a Crypto-backed Loan to upgrade your home, increasing its value without liquidating your crypto holdings.

- **Debt consolidation** — Combine multiple debts into a single loan, simplifying repayments and reducing the interest you pay. 

- **Education** — Pay for university fees or other educational expenses with a crypto-backed loan, investing in your future without touching your crypto savings.

![property-7046997_1920 1.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/property_7046997_1920_1_48afc3e1cc.jpg)


# **Introducing the Block Earner Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto-backed loan **

At[ Block Earner](https://blockearner.com.au/), we like to stay on top of the latest movements within the crypto market, so we can continue bringing utility to crypto holdings. We’re proud to offer a seamless and fast way to leverage your Bitcoin or Ethereum for loans in Australia. 

Our platform is designed to provide quick liquidity access while ensuring your assets remain secure. Here’s what you can expect with a Block Earner Crypto-backed Loan:

- **Competitive fixed interest rates** — We offer attractive fixed interest rates of 9.50% (11.93% comparison rate*) for our Bitcoin or Ethereum Crypto-backed Loans, making it affordable to borrow against your crypto assets. 

- **Access up to 33% of your crypto’s value** — Block Earner allows borrowers to borrow up to 33% of the value of the Bitcoin or Ethereum in your account, giving you ample access to the funding you need. Depending on your circumstances we may lend up to 50% LVR.

- **Flexible loan terms** — Block Earner understands that every investor has a different way of managing money, so we offer flexible loan terms and repayment options. With a Block Earner Crypto-backed Loan, you can repay your loan on any schedule or in full at the end of 12 months, ensuring you have a solution that best fits your lifestyle. 

- **Secure security management** — Your security is stored securely, ensuring the safety of your digital assets throughout the loan term. As we hold your crypto, you’ll also maintain exposure to the crypto market, ensuring you continue to reap the benefits of price movements. 

- **Simple application process** — Our user-friendly platform makes it easy to apply for a loan and get approved quickly. More often than not, approved applications received before midday are settled the same day.


# **Get started with Block Earner today **

At Block Earner, we're here to support you on your journey, whether you're ready to apply for a crypto-backed loan or just want to explore your options. If you're curious about how much you can borrow, our [loan calculator](https://blockearner.com.au/crypto-backed-loans/loan-calculator/) is available to give you a clear estimate in just a few clicks. 

If you'd prefer to speak with one of our specialists, feel free to [book a call](https://blockearner.com.au/crypto-backed-loans/) with our expert team, who are ready to guide you through the process and answer any questions you may have.

![Frame 1597879751.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Frame_1597879751_ef9378b0b5.jpg)

Make your crypto portfolio go further with Block Earner. With more than [300 supported cryptocurrencies](https://blockearner.com.au/supported-cryptocurrencies/), competitive rates and competitive trading fees, we’re proud to be the home of crypto traders nationwide. Recognised for our innovation, we've earned recognition with awards like the WeMoney Innovation Award for Lending Innovation of the Year and Excellence in Blockchain/Distributed Ledger at the 2024 Finnies Awards, ensuring that you’re trading with a trusted and award-winning platform.

Create an account with Block Earner and submit your application for a Crypto-backed Loan today. If you have any [questions](https://blockearner.com.au/faq/) about Crypto-backed Loans, please don’t hesitate to [contact us](https://blockearner.com.au/contact-us/). 









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As cryptocurrency becomes increasingly integrated into mainstream finance, investors are exploring innovative ways to unlock value from their digital assets. One option gaining popularity is Crypto-backed Loans.

Crypto-Backed Loans In Australia: How They Work & What You Need To Know

**Crypto Market Overview**

This past fortnight saw the US Fed drop interest rates by half a percentage point. Now, as an avid reader of this newsletter you will know what that means for risk-on assets like Crypto. In case you’ve forgotten, **it’s good**. This is because liquidity typically leaves traditional markets when rates drop as the returns are no longer satisfactory (yes, 0.5% can be enough for some institutions). When modelled out, the risk adjusted return may wash out better with assets that fluctuate in value rather than treasury bills. 

[TOKEN2049](https://www.token2049.com/) was on last week too, we had both directors [James](https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-coombes-617b2a19/) and [Charlie](https://www.linkedin.com/in/charlie-karaboga/) in attendance. The industry is thriving internationally with some truly groundbreaking technology being developed. A highlight is using blockchain to reduce physical infrastructure costs of large computing projects like AI. Blockchain does this by allowing ordinary people to submit their residential computing power to the network and in return receive ‘rent’ - all without meeting the counterparty. Be sure to follow us on LinkedIn for more updates on what we saw!

There are whispers around the ecosystem that alt season may be about to kick off 🧐. This is when value starts to rotate out of Bitcoin and into smaller cap tokens, typically with radical volatility. While we will inevitably hear about eye-watering profits, there are countless untold stories of losses during this period. These rumours have begun to circulate now that ETH/BTC has broken out of a long term downtrend, do with that what you will!

Never a dull moment, thanks for being with us.

*DISCLAIMER: The information on this blog post is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product. Block Earner does not recommend or endorse any particular token.*



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Block Earner Bulletin

Fed Rate Cuts & Altcoin Whispers

**Crypto Market Overview**

It’s hard to write an update that doesn’t focus on America’s antics, mainly because there’s always something to talk about but also because it's the largest economy on Earth. The presidential debate happened recently and it’s widely recognised that Kamala Harris surprised viewers with her poise, public speaking and intelligent responses. The crypto markets responded poorly to this as Trump is considered the Bitcoin Candidate after exclaiming that he plans to create a sovereign wealth fund holding BTC. 

This negative energy was largely countered by Jerome Powel signalling a shift in fiscal policy is on the horizon, meaning lower rates. Lower rates mean you get less from holding cash in different investment vehicles, which increases the likelihood of people searching for alternative sources of value. As with all news, the markets overreact so news of a potential rate cut fueled buying interest in crypto. Since 2019 there has been an inverse correlation between [Fed rates and the Bitcoin price](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:a96375058094b:0-impact-of-fed-interest-rates-on-crypto-holders/).

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Investors remain wary with Russia/Ukraine, Middle East and South East Asia tensions remaining unresolved. Global instability often causes a flee to cash so fear of a similar outcome is preventing institutions from taking large positions - Berkshire Hathaway has sold off over $75bn of its shareholdings into cash as a result of such uncertainty.

Stay safe out there!

*DISCLAIMER: The information on this blog post is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product. Block Earner does not recommend or endorse any particular token.*

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Is Now The Perfect Time To Buy?!

Research powered by [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/) — [Book a strategy call](http://collectiveshift.io/strategy) to learn more

**Key Takeaways**

- Selling the top is extremely difficult.

- Manage your expectations of what is achievable when it comes to selling.

- If you sell within 15% of the market peak, history suggests that it is an amazing outcome.


Everyone calculates how much money they’ll make when they sell at the top. “When the price goes to $xyz, I’ll have $abc money and life will be great.” But how do you actually sell the top? Remember, there is actually only one trade at the top. One buyer, one seller. That’s it! So, guess what? It’s probably not going to be you.

So, realistically, what can you achieve when it comes to selling the top?

Let’s use [Bitcoin](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/btc/) (BTC) as the example looking at 2021 top of $69,000. You’re probably thinking, “If I can get within 5% of the top—or $65,550 (green line below)—I’ve done well.” I have some bad news for you: you’re simply not that good! Last cycle, BTC’s price spent just three days above $65,550. Yes, three! You had only three days out of the entire four-year cycle to nail it within 5% of the top.

What about 10% from the top? A price of $62,100 (red line below)? The price closed above this only 16 days of the entire cycle. Again, how good do you think you are?

What about 15% from the top? A price of $58,650 (purple line below) There were 33 days that the price closed above this. Maybe now we’re starting to see what we can realistically achieve. If you get 15% from the top you have done amazingly well. Of a cycle that is 1,461 days long (i.e. four years, with one being a leap year), you have one month to sell 15% from the top.

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Let’s take a quick look at [Ethereum](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/eth/) (ETH).

ETH topped at $4,870. So, 5%, 10% and 15% is $4,626, $4,383 and $4,140, respectively.

5% from the top you had five days to nail it.

10% from the top you had 20 days.

15% from the top you had 39 days.

 ![eth-1024x583-2.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/eth_1024x583_2_c09ae1f484.jpg)

Are we seeing a pattern?

Finally, let’s look at [Solana](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/sol/) (SOL).

Top of $260, we are looking at $247, $234 and $221, respectively.

5% from the top you had three days.

10% from the top you had 10 days.

15% from the top you had 15 days.

![sol-1024x583-1.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/sol_1024x583_1_7ed98b9026.jpg)

So, in summary, selling the top is a myth. If you sell within 15%, history says you’ve done incredibly well. Adjust your expectations and your thought processes accordingly. For example, if you think BTC can hit $200,000 this cycle, consider setting your sells for $170,000 and be happy taking profits.

If you enjoyed these insights, make sure to [book an intro strategy call](http://collectiveshift.io/strategy) with our research partners over at [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/).




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Every crypto investor wants to sell the top, but is this really achievable? Let’s take a look at prior market cycles to see how realistic this is.

What Selling the Top Looks Like

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