Instantaneous communication and information unhindered by distance was once the stuff of science fiction. Even Mark Twain dreamt of a 'limitless distance telephone' able to broadcast images and sound across the world all the way back in 1904.

Today, the supercomputers of yesteryear fit into our jean pockets. The way we work, socialise and digest information has been fundamentally and irreversibly changed forever.

Yet somehow along the way, our financial systems have remained more or less static. Although physical money has been replaced by an unseen stream of bits and bytes, we still rely on the institutions, bankers and financiers of the past  to gatekeep transactions and dictate monetary value.

The technology sector always seeks to blaze trails, and the history of digital finance is no different. Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is no doubt the hottest topic in a generation of finance news. It seems incredibly futuristic and modern, but surprisingly, the technology has roots reaching far back into the 1980s. 

The seeds of blockchain technology were planted by American computer scientist and cryptography researcher David Chaum. Working at the University of California, Berkeley, Chaum’s 1982 dissertation outlined the main tenets of blockchain technology in detail. In fact, all but one factor of his work are part of modern Bitcoin as we know it today.

Chaum's work focused on anonymity and secure transactional information. He went on to found eCash and other digital currency ventures in the rest of his career. This included his own company DigiCash in the 90s.

Chaum's venture into e-commerce filed for bankruptcy in 1998. Chaum, in good nature, cites the lack of widespread financial adoption as the key cause of DigiCash's failure. Sometimes forward thinkers are a bit too ahead of the curve.

QUOTE: “I’ve always had a fundamental belief that individuals should control their own digital lives, and to do so, peer-to-peer networks are necessary.” - [David Chaum, 2019](https://www.forbes.com/sites/yoavvilner/2019/01/18/cypherpunk-forefather-david-chaum-on-his-thoughts-and-plans-for-2019/?sh=797bde869a51)

The idea of blockchain faded into obscurity until the late 2000s. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 shook the world to its core. Millions of people's savings, life plans and investments disappeared overnight due to the unseen actions of a few elite institutions. The system had failed in an unprecedented way all across the world.

The big banks and financial institutions had grown too big for their own good, and the way in which governments bailed them out while ignoring the suffering of the everyday citizen struck a sour chord. People’s faith in the establishment was irrevocably damaged.

Meanwhile, the advent of social media, smartphones and ubiquitous technology use was accelerating. People began spending more and more time online, and not just for memes and funny cat videos. We began to really live our whole lives online.

In 2009, an anonymous persona with the pseudonym Satoshi Nakomoto launched Bitcoin nn January.

At first, it was merely the realm of diehard internet geeks and IT aficionados. It existed as an intellectual curiosity with an emphasis on anonymous financial transactions away from the prying eyes of governments and regulators.

For that reason, early adopters of Bitcoin were often associated with the dark web, purchasing contraband or novelty items. At the time, there were no long-term benefits to the strange idea of cryptocurrency making serious headway. In fact, in 2010, a Florida man paid 10,000 Bitcoins for the home delivery of two Papa John’s pizzas just for the heck of it (this anecdote is now commemorated by the crypto community on May 22 as Bitcoin Pizza Day).

It wasn’t long however, before the true potential of this technological advancement was being noticed. In 2012, Coinbase was founded by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, receiving financial backing and support from Wall Street big-hitters. It’s also no coincidence that Armstrong came from an established career as an Airbnb engineer, a notable disruptor of the accommodation and travel industry.

By 2014, Coinbase had grown to 1 million users, and today that number has exploded to more than 70 million verified users making Coinbase the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchange service, and the second largest in the world. In 2022, the average 24 hour trading volume exceeds $5 billion USD on Coinbase.

The mid 2010s was a period of high volatility. The value graph of Bitcoin ping-ponged intensely, causing similar blood pressure patterns to form in the veins of speculative buyers joining the digital revolution. However, the continuous upward trend of Bitcoin’s value meant that it soon became a household name, not just a buzzword amongst the nerdiest of the fin-tech in-crowd.

Still, that didn’t mean there weren’t bumps along the way. Two major bubbles are said to have occurred in 2011 and 2018. The latter is colloquially known as The Great Crypto Crash, during which a major drop in value of up to 70% occurred. Financial experts have remarked on the resiliency of cryptocurrency as a whole, allowing a new age of maturation to occur following the crash.

And so here we are today, with an explosion in cryptocurrency popularity. Another global event beginning in 2020 forced people indoors and online on an unprecedented scale. The COVID-19 pandemic normalised the idea of remote work, distance education, and further intensified our symbiotic relationship with the internet.

When international travel was shut down and lockdowns made the future uncertain, countless businesses and economies floundered. All of a sudden, this novel idea of peer-to-peer financial transactions found a very real application. And just like the 2008 GFC, financial crises in inflation rates, unemployment and growing debt once again led to people searching for viable alternatives. Outdated and convoluted, the pitfalls of traditional banking systems became more apparent than ever.

In an extreme case of policy action, the crashing economy of El Salvador turned to cryptocurrency as a formal public ledger, becoming the first country to officially accept Bitcoin as legal tender. This [test of financial liberty](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/world/americas/bitcoin-el-salvador-bukele.html) is still in its early stages, but it may prove to be a crucial proof of concept in yet another evolutionary phase of cryptocurrency usage.

But it’s not just for governments or policymakers. In January 2021, TechCrunch published a report titled ‘[How Bitcoin is helping middle-class users survive the pandemic](https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/21/how-bitcoin-is-helping-middle-class-users-survive-the-pandemic/)’, highlighting how international students and workers turned to Bitcoin to continue their lives in the face of a global emergency. More succinctly, the New York Times simply said: [“We’re All Crypto People now”](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/technology/cryptocurrency-mainstream.html).

>*...the true believers and veterans of the 12-year-old digital currency industry insist that the underlying tech is real and transformative and finally — finally! — ready to upend nothing less than the global financial system and internet as we know it.*

Today, it’s hard to go a day without hearing something about cryptocurrency. From the diehard gamer college student who’s holding Ethereum, to the hedge fund manager looking to invest in the next hottest coin, to companies like Nike and Prada launching NFTs, everyone is looking for a piece of the crypto pie. The total market cap of cryptocurrency in 2021 exceeded an incredible $2.2 trillion.

Digital money in the form of Bitcoin laid the foundation for the future we are already living. From its inception as a form of ‘eCash’, to its novelty use by nerds and geeks, to today’s hyped and exploding market in the mainstream, it’s been a fascinating journey so far. But it really is only just beginning.

![bitcoin timeline.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-1mq96udu0clbb.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/bitcoin_timeline_8aed6dc346.png)

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Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is no doubt the hottest topic in a generation of finance news.

History of Bitcoin

Bitcoin is the best known and most widely-adopted cryptocurrency. It’s a technology native to the internet, and is often referred to as the future of money. Bitcoin, while technically complex, is a simple concept: Bitcoin is a globally accessible digital currency that allows for secure and transparent peer-to-peer transactions.

Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology because it allows people anywhere in the world to store their value and make payments without trusted third parties. It’s the first currency of the internet, and everyone in the world is free to use it.

Bitcoin was created in 2009 by an anonymous person or group of people using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, and it was first outlined in the 2008 Bitcoin [white paper](https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf). In 2021, Bitcoin collided with mainstream consciousness and became a household name.

Unlike centralised government currencies such as USD, AUD, GBP etc. (called fiat currencies), which are created and issued under the control of central banks and governments within the traditional financial system. Bitcoin is not affiliated or controlled by any centralised masters. Meaning, Bitcoin cannot be inflated or manipulated in any way like traditional fiat money.

Bitcoin can be used as a form of payment like cash. However, there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Because of this scarce supply, and due to its 13 year battle-tested fundamentals, Bitcoin has become an increasingly attractive investment.

# How does Bitcoin work without a centralised authority?

You can think of Blockchain and Bitcoin as an open accounting system, where a network of high powered computers around the world work together to track ownership of digital tokens known as Bitcoins. 

When you send Bitcoin to someone, the transaction is broadcast to the entire Bitcoin network. After the transaction is verified, it is recorded in a public ledger called the blockchain. The blockchain contains a record of every Bitcoin transaction that has occurred since the system came online in 2009.

While traditional currencies are issued by a central authority, Bitcoins can only be created and issued by the network to Bitcoin miners who process transactions. Miners are powerful specialised computers that do the processing required to manage transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. Miners earn Bitcoin as a reward for this work, and this is how new Bitcoins enter circulation. 

The Bitcoin system is immutably programmed so that only 21 million bitcoins will ever exist. As time goes by, the reward for miners decreases, and the result is a predictable supply, governed by scarcity. 

The Bitcoin market cap is over $440 billion AUD and the [current price](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) per Bitcoin sits at over $33,600 AUD as of August 8th 2022*.

![PAX Chart - 7.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/PAX_Chart_7_2afbb13909.png)
*Bitcoin (BTC) [Market Cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) 8/8/2022

# How do I buy Bitcoin?

Bitcoin can be broken down to 8 decimal places, meaning you can buy or send just a fraction of a full Bitcoin. So any amount of money can be represented in Bitcoin.

The introduction of Block Earner [Invest](https://blockearner.com.au/products/invest/) provides Australians with the simplest way to buy and sell any amount (even fractional) of Bitcoin. With no lock-in periods, no minimum deposit amounts, and low fees — you can track performance live in the app or withdraw your holdings at anytime, anywhere.

Learn more about the [History of Bitcoin](https://blockearner.com.au/blog/history-of-bitcoin/)

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Bitcoin is the best known and most widely-adopted cryptocurrency. It’s a technology native to the internet, and is often referred to as the future of money.

What is Bitcoin? (BTC)

Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) is a token that runs on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain. WBTC is backed 1:1 with Bitcoin (BTC) by a decentralised network that warrants its price is pegged to that of Bitcoin.

Wrapped cryptocurrencies were created to mirror the underlying asset's value they represent because cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin also exist on their own unique blockchain. 

Why wrap Bitcoin? Simply, Bitcoin itself exists on its own blockchain, one that is separate from the programmable blockchain Ethereum. Ethereum's ecosystem is the home of decentralised applications and smart contracts. So wrapping Bitcoin in Ethereum means that consumers can interact with Ethereum-based decentralised finance (DeFi) platforms using the underlying asset Bitcoin in its wrapped form.

**Who created WBTC?**

WBTC was [launched](https://wbtc.network/assets/WBTC_Press_Release_Jan_2019.pdf) on October 26 2018, as a collaborative effort by BitGo, Kyber Network, Ren (previously Republic Protocol), and other community partners to bring Bitcoin's liquidity to Ethereum’s decentralised ecosystem and improve the decentralised application. 

The WBTC whitepaper was released in January 2019. In the same month, the token was launched with eight merchants facilitating Bitcoin-to-WBTC conversions.

**The purpose of WBTC**

The WBTC token was built using Ethereum’s [ERC-20 token](https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/standards/tokens/erc-20/) standard to provide bitcoin liquidity to the DeFi ecosystem. Cryptocurrency users who only owned Bitcoin were previously unable to access and use the decentralised applications being built on the Ethereum protocol, and DeFi projects identified an opportunity to tap into the larger market capitalisation and higher trading volume of the Bitcoin community through WBTC tokens.

The typical use for WBTC is as collateral, or a pledge for loan repayment, when taking out a cryptocurrency loan on DeFi platforms. Upon repayment of the crypto borrowed, the collateral, in the form of WBTC, is returned. If the collateral is liquidated, the WBTC is recouped by the platform.

**Who manages or issues it?**

The WBTC protocol is currently controlled by a decentralised autonomous organisation (DAO), that consists of 17 stakeholder members within the DeFi space. According to the WBTC website, there are more than 40 participants — including DAO members, wallets, merchants, and exchanges — in the WBTC ecosystem as of December 2020.

One way of acquiring WBTC is by using a platform like Block Earner. Converting bitcoin into WBTC typically comes without a cost, but when converting WBTC back into Bitcoin, merchants generally charge a fee. Users of WBTC also accrue Ethereum transaction fees as they transact within the DeFi ecosystem.

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Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) is a token that runs on the Ethereum blockchain. WBTC is backed 1:1 with Bitcoin.

What is Wrapped Bitcoin? (WBTC)

## Did crypto just go mainstream?


Did Bitcoin just cross the rubicon? Is it now officially a BoomerFi-ed asset? A legitimate financial asset in the U.S. financial system? Yes. In the wake of the historic [approval](https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/bitcoin-etf-decision-opens-can-of-worms-to-invest-in-new-form-of-money-20240111-p5ewly#:~:text=Australia%20is%20also%20ready%20to,is%20preparing%20a%20similar%20product.) of the first Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds ([ETFs](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)), the market finds itself at yet another critical juncture. Flat lining on the news of SEC approval.

Let’s analyse shall we? Both tech stonks and crypto had a great 2023, back to near all time highs. Bitcoin itself [surged 163%](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-12-26-2023/card/bitcoin-and-crypto-stocks-had-a-good-2023-mVnJmt2NySt7CCzosnMH) in 2023, rebounding sweetly from the 2022 [FTX saga](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/02/sam-bankman-fried-guilty-on-all-7-counts-in-ftx-fraud-trial/) lows.

While debates arise on whether the debut of Bitcoin ETFs signal the top of the 2023 bull cycle, it’s important to maintain a measured perspective on the evolving world market. The big enchilada? Bitcoin is now accessible on the U.S. stock market, trillions of dollars.

Now, financial advisors with short and long time allocation horizons, tens of millions of retirement accounts; can entertain crypto exposure in their portfolios. 1-5-10% or more. Bitcoin exposure could serve as both a risk diversifier and a performance enhancer.

But Bitcoin is down? Why? As usual, a nice combination of fear and uncertainty, plus a healthy helping of people taking profit. Grayscale played a role, with approval to convert its GBTC fund that [already](https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/total_assets_under_management) has $28 billion in assets under management into it’s spot ETF.

![Screen Shot 2024-01-17 at 12.07.10 pm.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024_01_17_at_12_07_10_pm_cf24b8e6b9.png)
*Spot Bitcoin ETF Volume Source:* [The Block Data](https://www.theblock.co/post/272460/day-two-of-spot-bitcoin-etf-trading-tops-3-1-billion-as-grayscale-and-blackrock-lead)

While we ponder the price trajectory forward, perhaps looking at the chart below (**Disbelief:** This a sucker’s rally.) A steadfast belief echoes within the crypto community – the initial stages of the bull market are unfolding.

![Group 1597878879.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Group_1597878879_c7847eb91f.jpg)
*Psychology of a Market Cycle - Not Financial Advice, Please Read Disclaimer Below.*

As we enter 2024 at around 60/100 - Neutral/Greed [Crypto Fear & Greed Index](https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/) uncertainty, increasing notes of cautious optimism prevail on [crypto twitter](https://twitter.com/blockearner). Despite the potential for sharp volatile market fluctuations that introduce an element of fear, the overarching sentiment remains positive.

## BTC Spot ETFs


The largest players in traditional finance just bought Bitcoin within the fold. The creation and U.S. SEC approval of highly liquid, highly accessible spot ETFs, mirroring the tactics applied to the gold market with the approval of gold ETFs in 2004. Today, gold is priced at around [A$3,085](https://abcbullion.com.au/products-pricing/gold), up well over 350% on a nearly 20-year timeframe.

The most anticipated aspect of this ETF lies in its potential to revolutionise access to Bitcoin. Essentially, BTC is now available on the NASDAQ, backed/provided by the largest institutional money management firms in the history of mankind. Bullish?

## What does it mean for crypto?


Did you know the Winklevoss twins sought approval for a Spot Bitcoin ETF [back in 2013](https://www.businessinsider.com/winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-2013-7), encountering a prolonged denial from the SEC that spanned over a decade. Unlike big old [BlackRock](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust), who submitted its application and secured approval within a mere six months. Circumstances that raise intriguing questions as to the nuances of the U.S. regulatory landscape.

Diving deeper, the underlying fear for the crypto community is that this is blurring the line between the traditional financial system and the decentralised world of permissionless peer-to-peer money. 

Where believers see Bitcoin as a way to escape the global fiat debasement. Many on Wall Street will be buying with fiat [to earn more fiat](https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1747239076565045666). Just another quick call with your broker.

Regardless of fears that may arise, there is a collective anticipation in crypto that, by the close of the year, the market will experience a glorious resurgence, potentially reaching or surpassing its all-time high in both Bitcoin's market capitalisation and the alt-coin ecosystem.

This outlook rests on the understanding that the world is rapidly evolving. Central bankers and governments worldwide are heavily tied to the ongoing [fiat currency debasement](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL), also known as the "[brrr](https://youtu.be/O1hCLBTD5RM?si=HaD8KcJelOO8YXL2)" of the "[infinite](https://twitter.com/AltcoinDailyio/status/1747623558489034848)" money printer.

As this narrative remains an underlying point for a renewed inflow of capital into crypto. BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink put it best, “a flight to quality”. Hopefully one that can break the cycle and [Update The System](https://youtu.be/a4F9u8Z84YI?si=bU3EHaqByh4cgbhk).

![Coinbase_-_UTS_-_Broken_System.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/Coinbase_UTS_Broken_System_cc595b46cd.jpg)
*Video Source: [Break The Cycle | Update The System](https://youtu.be/a4F9u8Z84YI?si=xXynwm4geNtjgCal)*

“An ETF in the US is the best combination of things you could possibly have. The world's best capital market and the world’s best financial innovation product ever created. It's an ETF in the US, and it's got a great narrative, and all the big boys are joining.” - [Beimnet Abebe](https://twitter.com/BeimnetAbebe), Director, Principal Trading at Galaxy Digital

The year 2024 will be a continuation, another great chapter in the ongoing story of the digital revolution. One should be prepared for a journey of fluctuations, bumpy and unpredictable. However, we may soon find ourselves on the cusp of new all-time highs once more, ready to explore the boundless possibilities in the ever-evolving world around us.


*DISCLAIMER: The information on this blog post is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product. Block Earner does not recommend or endorse any particular token.*














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Did crypto just go mainstream? Did Bitcoin just cross the rubicon? Is it now officially a BoomerFi-ed asset? A legitimate financial asset in the U.S. financial system? Yes.

The Catalyst: Bitcoin Spot ETFs Approved

Research powered by [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/) — [Book a strategy call](http://collectiveshift.io/strategy) to learn more


**Key Takeaways**

- These lull periods are a standard part of all bull and bear markets. They can be challenging and frustrating, but they are ultimately necessary.

- I expect the next month or two to be more of the same, especially because August and September are historically two of BTC’s worst months.

- The setup for Q4 is incredibly strong, in my opinion, and I expect prices to be significantly higher by year-end.


**Trying Times For Crypto Investors**

Times like these can be difficult for us crypto investors. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have [fully recouped their losses](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-rally-to-fully-recoup-losses-from-august-sell-off-133436462.html) from the brutal start of August. [Gold is near record highs](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-prices-soar-near-time-215330418.html).

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency prices are still well below where they were when the carnage started on August 2—BTC (-12.2%), ETH (-19.6%) and SOL (-15.3%)—and the [Fear & Greed Index](https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/) has been at ‘Fear’ or ‘Extreme Fear’ for most of August.

There’s no denying that things are quiet. Many investors have become apathetic after seeing BTC bounce around in the same price range for many months, while their altcoin holdings have fallen. Some are questioning their level of conviction.

For me, I’m fortunate to have experienced several of these months-long periods of choppiness since I started investing in crypto in 2017. Regardless of whether these periods are taking place in a bull or bear market, they never fail to test you and challenge your assumptions.

**My Short-Term Outlook: More Chop**

We are in a seasonally terrible period for crypto. You can’t ignore the data.

BTC really doesn’t like August and September. Taking the median average of monthly returns since 2013, August (-8.4%) and September (-5.6%) are literally the worst and second-worst months for BTC, as per [Coinglass](https://www.coinglass.com/today). Using the mean average, August (+1.5%) is the third-worst and September (-4.8%) is the worst.

![price-performance-monthly.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/price_performance_monthly_a8c7a2d7d4.png)

Couple this with the fact there are currently no clear catalysts for crypto, and I expect more rangebound price action for the next month or two. For altcoins, I think it makes the most sense to wait for BTC to break above its months-long range.

Due to this lack of short-term catalysts, I expect macro to have a larger-than-typical impact on crypto prices. For this reason, the below dates may be of significance. (Emphasis on ‘may’.)

- **Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug. 22–24).** The [annual event](https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/) where the world’s central bankers convene to discuss monetary policy. These are hit-and-miss in terms of their significance.

- **Trump vs Harris presidential debate (Sep. 10).** If there is a clear winner, this debate will likely affect the outcome of November’s election. (There will be subsequent debates, but ultimately most voters will only remember the first—if any.)

- **U.S. interest rate decision (Sep. 18).** While a rate cut is all but certain, its size is still unknown. As per [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html), a cut of 25 basis points is a 74% chance, with 50 basis points a 26% chance. As always, Chair Powell’s press conference will arguably have a greater impact on markets than the decision itself.

**Why I Expect Much Higher Prices By Year-End**

Nothing lasts forever. This rangebound price action is no exception. When I look to Q4, I can’t help but get excited for the crypto market. Consider these factors:

- [Global liquidity](https://x.com/cmsholdings/status/1823407308681982302) will have continued strengthening if the current trend holds.

- [Rate cutting](https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1820795297418694817) will have started in the U.S. and continued for many other central banks.

- Accessibility to the spot Bitcoin ETFs will have improved. Other wirehouses are expected to follow Morgan Stanley, [which last week became the first](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t2sgM73CX4&t=603s) to allow its financial advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs to eligible clients. As I’ve said all year, I believe most investors are unaware of how limited access to these new ETFs is.

- Most of, if not all, Mt. Gox creditors will have received their BTC redistributions from their designated exchange. No longer will this enormous balance of ~142K BTC (~$8.3B) weigh on the minds of crypto investors.

There are some wildcards, too, such as November’s U.S. election and the possibility of regulatory progress in the U.S.

As for my outlook for beyond 2024, I expect the peak of this cycle to happen around May or June. Of course, this is subject to change based on a long list of variables. It makes zero sense to ignore these variables.

By this stage of 2024, BTC would well and truly be in the window where it typically hits its cycle high. (Of course, last cycle was an exception, and there are other reasons I’d never rely on this stat at the exclusion of all else… but I still think the below chart from [_checkonchain](https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/technical/technical_epochcycle_price_0/technical_epochcycle_price_0_light.html) is a useful visualisation.)

![bitcoin-index-halving.png](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/bitcoin_index_halving_4ed6aa9388.png)

**Recap**

These lull periods are a standard part of all bull and bear markets. While I expect this choppiness to persist for another month or two, the setup for Q4 is incredibly strong, in my opinion. For this reason, I still expect prices to be significantly higher than year-end.

If you enjoyed these insights, make sure to [book an intro strategy call](http://collectiveshift.io/strategy) with our research partners over at [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/).

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These quiet market conditions can frustrate even the most experienced crypto investors. In this post, we break down how we're seeing things and why we still expect a very strong ending to 2024 for crypto.

Survive Q3, Thrive In Q4

Research powered by [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/) — [Book a strategy call](http://collectiveshift.io/strategy) to learn more

**Key Takeaways**

- Selling the top is extremely difficult.

- Manage your expectations of what is achievable when it comes to selling.

- If you sell within 15% of the market peak, history suggests that it is an amazing outcome.


Everyone calculates how much money they’ll make when they sell at the top. “When the price goes to $xyz, I’ll have $abc money and life will be great.” But how do you actually sell the top? Remember, there is actually only one trade at the top. One buyer, one seller. That’s it! So, guess what? It’s probably not going to be you.

So, realistically, what can you achieve when it comes to selling the top?

Let’s use [Bitcoin](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/btc/) (BTC) as the example looking at 2021 top of $69,000. You’re probably thinking, “If I can get within 5% of the top—or $65,550 (green line below)—I’ve done well.” I have some bad news for you: you’re simply not that good! Last cycle, BTC’s price spent just three days above $65,550. Yes, three! You had only three days out of the entire four-year cycle to nail it within 5% of the top.

What about 10% from the top? A price of $62,100 (red line below)? The price closed above this only 16 days of the entire cycle. Again, how good do you think you are?

What about 15% from the top? A price of $58,650 (purple line below) There were 33 days that the price closed above this. Maybe now we’re starting to see what we can realistically achieve. If you get 15% from the top you have done amazingly well. Of a cycle that is 1,461 days long (i.e. four years, with one being a leap year), you have one month to sell 15% from the top.

![bitcoin-1024x583-1 (1).jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/bitcoin_1024x583_1_1_52fdd0b29a.jpg)

Let’s take a quick look at [Ethereum](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/eth/) (ETH).

ETH topped at $4,870. So, 5%, 10% and 15% is $4,626, $4,383 and $4,140, respectively.

5% from the top you had five days to nail it.

10% from the top you had 20 days.

15% from the top you had 39 days.

 ![eth-1024x583-2.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/eth_1024x583_2_c09ae1f484.jpg)

Are we seeing a pattern?

Finally, let’s look at [Solana](https://blockearner.com.au/buy/sol/) (SOL).

Top of $260, we are looking at $247, $234 and $221, respectively.

5% from the top you had three days.

10% from the top you had 10 days.

15% from the top you had 15 days.

![sol-1024x583-1.jpg](https://strapi-service-execution-strapibucketc6c2af7f-xqyd4w1cm74e.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/sol_1024x583_1_7ed98b9026.jpg)

So, in summary, selling the top is a myth. If you sell within 15%, history says you’ve done incredibly well. Adjust your expectations and your thought processes accordingly. For example, if you think BTC can hit $200,000 this cycle, consider setting your sells for $170,000 and be happy taking profits.

If you enjoyed these insights, make sure to [book an intro strategy call](http://collectiveshift.io/strategy) with our research partners over at [Collective Shift](https://collectiveshift.io/).




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Every crypto investor wants to sell the top, but is this really achievable? Let’s take a look at prior market cycles to see how realistic this is.

What Selling the Top Looks Like

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